SCREEN 01 · INVENTORY OVERVIEW

China Main-Port Chrome Ore Inventory and Supply Pressure

Data date 2026-09-24

Total main-port stock4.89 Mt2026-09-24 · Confirmed

Weekly change-0.16 Mt2026-09-18 → 2026-09-24 · Calculated

Above 13-week low+0.06 MtLow 4.83 Mt · Current 4.89 Mt

Inventory statusHigh range with a near-term inventory drawOne-year position 77.1 percentile

Integrated read: High range with a near-term inventory draw

Main-port stock 4.89 Mt
2 consecutive weeks of inventory draw
Largest port Tianjin · 94.0%
One-year inventory position 77.1%

PORT INVENTORY STRUCTUREConfirmed weekly snapshot

PortInventoryShare

Tianjin4.59 Mt94.0%

Qinzhou / Fangcheng0.21 Mt4.3%

Lianyungang0.02 Mt0.4%

Other / Unallocated0.06 Mt1.3%Calculated balance

Inventory statusHigh range with a near-term inventory draw

Arrival outlookShort-term arrival pressure easing

Near-term inventory pressureNear-term inventory pressure biased downwardProjected 14-day arrival pressure is easing. If liftings hold, main-port inventory draws may accelerate.

SCREEN 02 · STOCK TREND

13-Week Main-Port Inventory Trend

Current4.89 Mt

High5.21 Mt

Low4.83 Mt

13W change-0.07 Mt

1Y percentile77.1%

Confirmed weekly data; missing weeks are not zero-filled; inventory facts are not mixed with vessel forecasts.

STRUCTURE CHANGECurrent vs prior week

PortCurrentPriorChange

Tianjin4.59 Mt4.73 Mt-0.14 Mt

Qinzhou / Fangcheng0.21 Mt0.24 Mt-0.03 Mt

Lianyungang0.02 Mt0.02 Mt0.00 Mt

Other / Unallocated0.06 MtNot availableNot available

Total4.89 Mt5.05 Mt-0.16 Mt

SCREEN 03 · VESSEL MONITOR

Chrome Ore Vessel Monitoring Map Beta

Latest verified chrome-vessel monitoring snapshots; not real-time AIS and no unconfirmed destination is inferred.

View all vessels and routes

Monitoring scope✓ Verified vessels✓ Chrome cargo✓ Origin port✓ Chinese main ports

Freshness● Latest ≤ 6h● Recent 6–24h● Possibly delayed 24–48h

VERIFIED CHROME CARGO SAMPLES

12 confirmed vessels · 5 AIS-visibleDaily roster and map sample are counted separatelyRoster date 2026-09-26 · Snapshot 2026-09-25T08:02:00+00:0010 vessels pending position or identity matching; retained in the confirmed roster

VesselCargoPositionChina destination

Peace0.17 MtRichards Bay areaPendingIMO 9568067 · 36.6h

Peace Sapphire0.03 MtBeira areaPendingIMO 1114731 · 43.7h

Hai Xing0.03 MtBeira areaPendingIMO 9177636 · 36.6h

Kashing0.02 MtBeira areaPendingIMO 9860295 · 46.6h

Ashima0.02 MtBeira areaPendingIMO 8355530 · 46.7h

Confirmed arrivals0.29 Mt2026-09-18 → 2026-09-24

AIS-visible vessel sample0.26 Mt5 verified map vessels

14-day model forecast0.72 Mt2026-09-26 → 2026-10-09

Confirmed arrivals and model forecasts have different scopes and must not be added or substituted.

SCREEN 04 · ARRIVAL OUTLOOK

Arrivals, Dispatches and 14-Day Pressure

Forecast generated 2026-09-26T22:39:11+02:00

A CONFIRMED FACTS

Confirmed arrivals0.29 Mt2026-09-18 → 2026-09-24

Confirmed dispatches0.40 Mt2026-09-18 → 2026-09-24

Tianjin confirmed liftings0.39 Mt2026-09-24

Tianjin confirmed inbound0.25 Mt2026-09-24

China-wide arrivals and Tianjin liftings have different scopes and are not used to calculate a national inventory balance directly.

B CALCULATED EVIDENCE

Inventory directionNear-term inventory pressure biased downward

Projected 14-day arrival pressure is easing. If liftings hold, main-port inventory draws may accelerate.

C MONITORING SIGNAL

Short-term pressureShort-term arrival pressure easing

Future arrivals are monitoring and model outlooks, not confirmed facts.

D MODEL FORECAST

7D0.35 Mt

14D0.72 Mt

8–14D0.37 Mt

2–4WFalling

MAE: 0.17 Mt
Baseline MAE: 0.17 Mt
Relative improvement: 3.5%
Backtest sample: n=43

0DConfirmed arrivals0.29 Mt

7DModel forecast0.35 Mt

14DModel forecast0.72 Mt

2–4WDirectional watchFalling