Market Analysis Report
ChromeBrief Weekly Observation
2026-08-23 to 2026-08-29The UG2/MG 42% benchmark rose to 286 USD/t. China main-port inventory built by 0.09 Mt to 4.919 Mt. Inventory sat in the upper range of its 13-week range. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.071 Mt; the two observations cover different logistics stages and cannot be directly netted. Taken together, price, inventory, shipping and demand anchors produced a divergent weekly assessment.
Change +1 USD/t · Percent +0.35%
2026-08-25 · weeklyChange +0.089 Mt · Percent +1.84%
2026-08-282026-08-27
2026-08-27
UG2/MG 42% · 13 weeks
The UG2/MG weekly benchmark was 286 USD/t, rose by 1 USD/t. Its 13-week range was 280-295 USD/t; the current value is in the middle range and -9 USD/t from the start of the window. Tianjin spot and ferrochrome are used only to test domestic acceptance and downstream transmission.
Weekly main-port inventory change
China main-port inventory was 4.919 Mt, built by 0.09 Mt or 1.84%. The 13-week range was 4.407-5.124 Mt. This week's build added to inventory pressure, with stocks in the upper range of the 13-week range. Inventory change is not treated as demand change without reliable port outflow data.
Confirmed flows and forecast windows
Inventory built by 0.09 Mt. Confirmed origin dispatch was 0.521 Mt and confirmed Chinese arrivals were 0.450 Mt; they are different stages and cannot be netted to infer inventory. Seven- and fourteen-day estimated arrivals are 0.430 Mt and 0.901 Mt.
Top Three Events This Week
Iranian sources say Hormuz agreement details remain under discussion with Oman
Greek shipowners back a pragmatic global framework before IMO decarbonisation talks
Jiangsu Yonggang set its month 8 low-carbon ferrochrome tender at RMB 13250 per 60-basis tonne
Value-chain divergence, scenarios and next checks
The combined assessment is divergent. This week's build added to inventory pressure, with stocks in the upper range of the 13-week range, while the UG2/MG benchmark rose. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.071 Mt, but a simple difference between logistics stages is not used as an inventory or market-direction signal. New formal tender results are included in the demand assessment.
- UG2/MG benchmark rose
- Main-port inventory built
- Tuesday: formal UG2/MG 42% weekly benchmark
- Friday: main-port inventory, confirmed dispatch, confirmed arrivals and 7-/14-day forecasts
- Month-end window: new representative mill tender results
Definitions, sources and revisions
Price, inventory, shipping and tender indicators retain their formal definitions and effective dates. Market events keep their source links, while reported facts are separated from ChromeBrief judgement. Forecasts are labelled and are not presented as confirmed facts.
The report uses a snapshot frozen at the Saturday cutoff and does not rewrite history with later observations. Non-comparable price bases are not spread, inventory stock is separated from dispatch and arrival flows, and model forecasts remain distinct from confirmed facts. Missing values remain missing rather than being filled with zeroes or synthetic flat observations.