Market Analysis Report
ChromeBrief Weekly Observation
2026-09-06 to 2026-09-12The UG2/MG 42% benchmark rose to 289 USD/t. China main-port inventory built by 0.12 Mt to 5.214 Mt. Inventory sat in the upper range of its 13-week range. Confirmed arrivals exceeded confirmed dispatch by 0.114 Mt; the two observations cover different logistics stages and cannot be directly netted. Taken together, price, inventory, shipping and demand anchors produced a divergent weekly assessment.
Change +3 USD/t · Percent +1.05%
2026-09-08 · weeklyChange +0.123 Mt · Percent +2.42%
2026-09-112026-09-10
2026-09-10
UG2/MG 42% · 13 weeks
The UG2/MG weekly benchmark was 289 USD/t, rose by 3 USD/t. Its 13-week range was 280-289 USD/t; the current value is in the upper range and +6 USD/t from the start of the window. Tianjin spot and ferrochrome are used only to test domestic acceptance and downstream transmission.
Weekly main-port inventory change
China main-port inventory was 5.214 Mt, built by 0.12 Mt or 2.42%. The 13-week range was 4.589-5.214 Mt. This week's build added to inventory pressure, with stocks in the upper range of the 13-week range. Inventory change is not treated as demand change without reliable port outflow data.
Confirmed flows and forecast windows
Inventory built by 0.12 Mt. Confirmed origin dispatch was 0.543 Mt and confirmed Chinese arrivals were 0.658 Mt; they are different stages and cannot be netted to infer inventory. Seven- and fourteen-day estimated arrivals are 0.576 Mt and 1.033 Mt.
Top Three Events This Week
Zhongtian Changzhou cuts September high-carbon ferrochrome tender price
Iran announces planned maritime restriction zone
Canada activates retaliatory tariffs covering US steel imports
Value-chain divergence, scenarios and next checks
The combined assessment is divergent. This week's build added to inventory pressure, with stocks in the upper range of the 13-week range, while the UG2/MG benchmark rose. Confirmed arrivals exceeded confirmed dispatch by 0.114 Mt, but a simple difference between logistics stages is not used as an inventory or market-direction signal. No new representative tender was released, so demand retains only a background weight.
- UG2/MG benchmark rose
- Main-port inventory built
- Tuesday: formal UG2/MG 42% weekly benchmark
- Friday: main-port inventory, confirmed dispatch, confirmed arrivals and 7-/14-day forecasts
- Month-end window: new representative mill tender results
Definitions, sources and revisions
Price, inventory, shipping and tender indicators retain their formal definitions and effective dates. Market events keep their source links, while reported facts are separated from ChromeBrief judgement. Forecasts are labelled and are not presented as confirmed facts.
The report uses a snapshot frozen at the Saturday cutoff and does not rewrite history with later observations. Non-comparable price bases are not spread, inventory stock is separated from dispatch and arrival flows, and model forecasts remain distinct from confirmed facts. Missing values remain missing rather than being filled with zeroes or synthetic flat observations.