Market Analysis Report
ChromeBrief Weekly Observation
2026-09-13 to 2026-09-19The UG2/MG 42% benchmark fell to 288 USD/t. China main-port inventory fell by 0.16 Mt to 5.050 Mt. Inventory sat in the middle range of its 13-week range. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.005 Mt; the two observations cover different logistics stages and cannot be directly netted. Taken together, price, inventory, shipping and demand anchors produced a divergent weekly assessment.
Change -1 USD/t · Percent -0.35%
2026-09-15 · weeklyChange -0.164 Mt · Percent -3.15%
2026-09-182026-09-17
2026-09-17
UG2/MG 42% · 13 weeks
The UG2/MG weekly benchmark was 288 USD/t, fell by 1 USD/t. Its 13-week range was 280-289 USD/t; the current value is in the upper range and +8 USD/t from the start of the window. Tianjin spot and ferrochrome are used only to test domestic acceptance and downstream transmission.
Weekly main-port inventory change
China main-port inventory was 5.050 Mt, fell by 0.16 Mt or 3.15%. The 13-week range was 4.735-5.214 Mt. This week's draw eased some inventory pressure, although stocks remain in the middle range of the 13-week range. Inventory change is not treated as demand change without reliable port outflow data.
Confirmed flows and forecast windows
Inventory fell by 0.16 Mt. Confirmed origin dispatch was 0.432 Mt and confirmed Chinese arrivals were 0.427 Mt; they are different stages and cannot be netted to infer inventory. Seven- and fourteen-day estimated arrivals are 0.432 Mt and 0.835 Mt.
Top Three Events This Week
China's August industrial electricity generation falls 0.8% year on year
SMM reports a change in chrome ore port stocks
Iran says it struck a tanker attempting to transit Hormuz
Value-chain divergence, scenarios and next checks
The combined assessment is divergent. This week's draw eased some inventory pressure, although stocks remain in the middle range of the 13-week range, while the UG2/MG benchmark fell. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.005 Mt, but a simple difference between logistics stages is not used as an inventory or market-direction signal. No new representative tender was released, so demand retains only a background weight.
- UG2/MG benchmark fell
- Main-port inventory fell
- Tuesday: formal UG2/MG 42% weekly benchmark
- Friday: main-port inventory, confirmed dispatch, confirmed arrivals and 7-/14-day forecasts
- Month-end window: new representative mill tender results
Definitions, sources and revisions
Price, inventory, shipping and tender indicators retain their formal definitions and effective dates. Market events keep their source links, while reported facts are separated from ChromeBrief judgement. Forecasts are labelled and are not presented as confirmed facts.
The report uses a snapshot frozen at the Saturday cutoff and does not rewrite history with later observations. Non-comparable price bases are not spread, inventory stock is separated from dispatch and arrival flows, and model forecasts remain distinct from confirmed facts. Missing values remain missing rather than being filled with zeroes or synthetic flat observations.