Market Analysis Report
ChromeBrief Weekly Observation
2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26The UG2/MG 42% benchmark fell to 279 USD/t. China main-port inventory fell by 0.16 Mt to 4.886 Mt. Inventory sat in the lower range of its 13-week range. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.103 Mt; the two observations cover different logistics stages and cannot be directly netted. Taken together, price, inventory, shipping and demand anchors produced a divergent weekly assessment.
Change -9 USD/t · Percent -3.13%
2026-09-22 · weeklyChange -0.164 Mt · Percent -3.25%
2026-09-242026-09-24
2026-09-24
UG2/MG 42% · 13 weeks
The UG2/MG weekly benchmark was 279 USD/t, fell by 9 USD/t. Its 13-week range was 279-289 USD/t; the current value is in the lower range and -1 USD/t from the start of the window. Tianjin spot and ferrochrome are used only to test domestic acceptance and downstream transmission.
Weekly main-port inventory change
China main-port inventory was 4.886 Mt, fell by 0.16 Mt or 3.25%. The 13-week range was 4.830-5.214 Mt. This week's draw eased some inventory pressure, although stocks remain in the lower range of the 13-week range. Inventory change is not treated as demand change without reliable port outflow data.
Confirmed flows and forecast windows
Inventory fell by 0.16 Mt. Confirmed origin dispatch was 0.398 Mt and confirmed Chinese arrivals were 0.294 Mt; they are different stages and cannot be netted to infer inventory. Seven- and fourteen-day estimated arrivals are 0.347 Mt and 0.718 Mt.
Top Three Events This Week
Several Stainless Steel Firms Enter China’s 2026 Top 500 Private Enterprises
Iran Says It Conveyed Hormuz Reopening Plan to US
SMM Reports Weekly Decline in China’s Chrome Ore Port Stocks
Value-chain divergence, scenarios and next checks
The combined assessment is divergent. This week's draw eased some inventory pressure, although stocks remain in the lower range of the 13-week range, while the UG2/MG benchmark fell. Confirmed dispatch exceeded confirmed arrivals by 0.103 Mt, but a simple difference between logistics stages is not used as an inventory or market-direction signal. New formal tender results are included in the demand assessment.
- UG2/MG benchmark fell
- Main-port inventory fell
- Tuesday: formal UG2/MG 42% weekly benchmark
- Friday: main-port inventory, confirmed dispatch, confirmed arrivals and 7-/14-day forecasts
- Month-end window: new representative mill tender results
Definitions, sources and revisions
Price, inventory, shipping and tender indicators retain their formal definitions and effective dates. Market events keep their source links, while reported facts are separated from ChromeBrief judgement. Forecasts are labelled and are not presented as confirmed facts.
The report uses a snapshot frozen at the Saturday cutoff and does not rewrite history with later observations. Non-comparable price bases are not spread, inventory stock is separated from dispatch and arrival flows, and model forecasts remain distinct from confirmed facts. Missing values remain missing rather than being filled with zeroes or synthetic flat observations.